MIES (FIBA Basketball World Cup 2019 Qualifiers) - Following the fifth window of the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2019 Qualifiers, 17 teams know they will join hosts China at the first-ever 32-team edition of basketball's biggest competition.
That means 14 spots are still on offer and will be filled in the sixth and final window of the Qualifiers, in February 2019.
Here is a breakdown, by region, of how things are shaping up after the fifth window.
AFRICA (3 out of 5 Qualified)
GROUP E
Qualified: Tunisia, Angola
Can still qualify:
Cameroon finished third in Group E and will secure a spot in the World Cup if the third-placed team in Group F has a worse record than 7-5 or a worse point differential than +78.
Can no longer qualify: Egypt, Morocco, Chad
GROUP F
Qualified: Nigeria
Can still qualify:
Senegal would secure a spot in the World Cup with a win or if Cote d'Ivoire lose at least one of their last three games.
Central African Republic (CAF) can only secure a spot in the World Cup as the best-ranked third-placed team and only if they win their last three games by a combined margin of at least 119 or 120 points, depending on the number of goals scored (119 if they score over 267 points and a margin of 120 points if they score under 267 points).
Cote d'Ivoire would secure a spot in the World Cup as the second-placed team in Group F if they win their last three games and Senegal lose their last three games. They can also qualify as the best-ranked third-placed team if they win their last three games with a combined margin of at least 65 or 66 points, depending on the number of goals scored (65 if they score over 294 points, 66 points if they score under 294).
Can no longer qualify: Rwanda, Mali
AMERICAS (4 out of 7 Qualified)
GROUP E
Qualified: Argentina, USA
Can still qualify:
Uruguay would secure a direct spot in the World Cup with a win against Puerto Rico in Group E, but a win against Mexico would suffice if they win the tie-breaker against Puerto Rico and Puerto Rico lose against Argentina. Alternatively, they could qualify as the best fourth-placed team in the Americas.
Puerto Rico would secure a direct spot in the World Cup with two wins in Group E, but a win against Uruguay would suffice if they win the tie-breaker and Uruguay lose against Mexico. Alternatively, they could qualify as the best fourth-placed team in the Americas.
Can no longer qualify: Mexico, Panama
GROUP F
Qualified: Venezuela, Canada
Can still qualify:
Brazil would secure a spot in the World Cup with a win in any of their last two games. They would secure a top-three finish in Group F with a win against the Dominican Republic, but a win against Virgin Islands would suffice if they win the tie-breaker against the Dominican Republic. Either way, if they win against the Virgin Islands, they would be guaranteed to, at worst, qualify as the best-ranked fourth-placed team.
Dominican Republic would secure a direct spot in the World Cup with two wins in Group F but just the lone win against Brazil would suffice if they win the tie-breaker and Brazil lose to Virgin Islands. Alternatively, they could qualify as the best fourth-placed team in the Americas.
Can no longer qualify: Chile, Virgin Islands
ASIA (4 out of 7 Qualified)
GROUP E
Qualified: China (tournament hosts)*, New Zealand, Korea
Can still qualify:
Lebanon could secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins but less could suffice. They do not have the tie-breakers over either Jordan or China, therefore their fate will depend on the results of these two teams and the results in the other group if they don't win twice, as they can also qualify as the best fourth-placed team in Asia.
Jordan could secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins if Lebanon lose at least one game. In case of 3-way tie with Lebanon, Jordan and China, Jordan will always finish ahead of Lebanon, therefore they qualify and Lebanon would battle to be the best fourth-placed team. They hold a tie-breaker over Lebanon or one win if Lebanon lose twice. Alternatively, they could qualify as the best fourth-placed team in Asia. Mathematically, they can still finish fifth but only in a scenario where China finishes ahead of them, therefore, at worst, they will be in consideration for the best fourth-placed team.
Can no longer qualify: Syria
*To determine the final standings, FIBA Basketball World Cup 2019 hosts China shall not be included. However all results related to games against China shall be taken into account.
GROUP F
Already qualified: Australia
Can still qualify:
Iran would secure a spot in the World Cup in all but one scenario. For them to finish fourth, they would have to lose to Australia and lose to Japan by at least 8 points, Philippines would have to beat Qatar and Kazakhstan, while Qatar would have to beat Japan. Even then, Iran could qualify as the best fourth-placed team.
Japan can finish anywhere between second and fourth place. They could secure a spot in the World Cup spot with two wins, but less could suffice depending on the other results of the group. They can also qualify as the best fourth-placed team in Asia. Japan can finish fourth in two ways:
a) a 3-way tie with Philippines and Kazakhstan for 3rd, 4th and 5th places or;
b) directly in 4th place
Either way, they can still qualify as best fourth-placed team.
Philippines can finish anywhere between third and fifth. They could secure a spot in the World Cup with as little as one win as they hold a tie-breaker against Japan, but even if they win both games they will have to depend on other results. Alternatively, they could qualify as the best fourth-placed team in Asia as long as they avoid losing to Kazakhstan by more than 48 points or losing twice, as they would finish fifth. They would also finish fifth if Kazakhstan win both games and Japan wins at least once.
Kazakhstan would secure a spot in the World Cup if they beat Australia by any margin and Philippines by at least 48 points, Japan lose both games and Philippines beat Qatar. Alternatively, they could qualify as the best fourth-placed team in Asia. They can finish fourth by:
a) case above, except Kazakhstan beats Philippines by between 17 and 47 points;
b) winning both their games and Japan winning one or c) Philippines losing both games.
Can no longer qualify: Qatar
EUROPE (7 out of 12 Qualified)
GROUP I
Qualified: Spain, Turkey
Can still qualify:
Montenegro would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins, but one could suffice depending on other results if they win the tie-breakers against Latvia, Ukraine and Turkey, though the latter might not necessarily come into play.
Latvia would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins, but a win against Montenegro could suffice depending on other results if they win the tie-breaker against Montenegro. Depending on other results, Latvia can also tie with Montenegro and Turkey for 2nd, 3rd and 4th spot and qualify if they win against Montenegro by 9 points.
Ukraine would clinch a spot in the World Cup if they win both of their games and capture the tie-breaker against Montenegro, providing that Latvia also lose both of their games and Turkey win at least one of theirs.
Can no longer qualify: Slovenia
GROUP J
Qualified: Lithuania
Can still qualify:
Italy would secure a spot in the World Cup with a win in either of their two remaining fixtures, but even two defeats could suffice as long as they either win the tie-breaker against Hungary or Hungary lose to Croatia. They could also qualify with a three way tie with Hungary and Poland at 19 points each.
Poland would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins but could qualify even with one or no wins in the final window, depending on other results. If they lose once, there is a small chance of an unfavorable three-way tie with Italy and Hungary (if Italy lose twice and Hungary win twice, beating Italy by exactly 9 points in a high-scoring with at least 117 points). If they lose twice, they could be overtaken by Hungary or Croatia if either of them win twice, also depending on the tie-breaker in the scenario with Croatia.
Hungary have to win twice to have a chance of securing a spot in the World Cup, but would still be dependent on other results. If Italy and Poland both win at least once each, Hungary would also be eliminated. Alternatively if Italy's win is against Lithuania instead of Croatia, Hungary qualifies in this scenario.
Croatia would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins but only if Poland lose to Netherlands and either Croatia win the tie-breaker against Poland or Hungary beat Italy.
Can no longer qualify: Netherlands
GROUP K
Qualified: France, Czech Republic
Can still qualify:
Russia can still qualify in several ways. They would secure a spot with a win against Finland, but could also go through with a win against Bulgaria depending on other results if:
a) they win the tie-breaker against Finland and Finland lose to France;
b) Finland beat France and Czech Republic lose both of their games.
Russia can also qualify with 2 losses as long as they win tie breaker against Finland (Russia won by +2pts), and Finland lose to France and Bulgaria lose to Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Finland would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins if they win the tie-breaker against Russia but a win against Russia alone could suffice, depending on other results. If Russia lose to Bulgaria, Finland would qualify with a win as long as they hold the tie-breaker over Russia. If Bulgaria win both of their games, Finland would qualify with any win against Russia.
Can no longer qualify: Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina
GROUP L
Qualified: Greece, Germany
Can still qualify:
Serbia would secure a spot in the World Cup with any win but could qualify with two defeats if Georgia and Israel suffer at least one loss each. Serbia must not lose by more than 21 points against Israel if they are to avoid elimination in a possible three-way tie scenario with Georgia and Israel at 6-6.
Georgia would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins, but only if Serbia lose twice.
Israel would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins if Serbia and Georgia both lose twice. If Serbia lose twice and Georgia win once, Israel would have to beat Serbia by 22 points or more to qualify.
Can no longer qualify: Estonia
FIBA